Ebitda forecast template you can build and use in 2026

An EBITDA forecast starts with projected revenue, subtracts cost of goods sold and operating expenses (excluding depreciation and amortisation), then adds back non-cash charges. Build it from driver-based inputs: unit volumes, headcount, and cost rates, rather than flat growth percentages, and run at least three scenarios to stress-test the result.

The row structure below gives founders and finance teams a repeatable framework for 2026 planning. Each section maps to a row group in your spreadsheet. The steps describe what to put in each row, not a finished file you download.

What is an EBITDA forecast and why does it matter for 2026 planning?#

An EBITDA forecast is a projection of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation over a future period. Investors use it to assess operating performance stripped of financing and accounting choices, which makes it the most common metric in fundraising and M&A conversations.

The formula is straightforward: Revenue minus COGS minus operating expenses, then add back depreciation and amortisation. The difficulty is not the formula. It is the assumptions behind the revenue line.

Flat percentage growth assumptions are unreliable. According to Jamestown Capital's 2025 analysis of public equity data, a 20% CAGR projection has only a 5% chance of being met or exceeded over five years. Average revenue growth across public equities sits at 5.1%. If your model assumes aggressive annual growth with no driver logic to support it, an investor will discount it immediately. Driver-based forecasting anchors each line to a real operational input: units sold, average selling price, headcount, or cost per unit.

The EBITDA forecast template: a step-by-step structure#

Copy this row structure into a spreadsheet. Add one column per month, then a full-year total.

1. Estimate revenue. Break it into product or service lines and multiply unit volume by average selling price for each. [S1]
2. Calculate COGS. Include materials, direct labour, hosting per user, and payment processing fees. Express each as a rate per unit where possible. [S2]
3. Subtract COGS from revenue to find gross profit. This line shows whether the core product economics work before any overhead enters the model. [S3]
4. Sum operating expenses. Split them into fixed and variable (see the next section). Each line needs a driver, not a guess. [S4]
5. Deduct operating expenses from gross profit to get operating income (EBIT). [S5]
6. Add back depreciation and amortisation to reach EBITDA. State each asset, its useful life, and the annual charge. [S6]

EBITDA alone does not show you when you run out of money. Once the model is working, link it to a 3 way cash flow forecast so the P&L and cash position stay consistent.

How do you separate fixed and variable costs in an EBITDA forecast?#

Fixed costs stay flat regardless of revenue volume. Variable costs scale with it. The split matters because it determines your operating ratio: how much of each additional pound of revenue falls to EBITDA.

Fixed costs include rent, salaried headcount, insurance, and software subscriptions. Variable costs include sales commissions, fulfilment costs, and any cost that is contractually tied to units delivered. A common mistake is to treat all payroll as fixed. A sales team hired to hit a revenue target is effectively a variable cost if you model it correctly against a sales-per-head assumption.

To find your breakeven revenue point, divide fixed monthly costs by your gross margin percentage. Every pound above that point contributes the gross margin rate directly to EBITDA. That relationship only becomes visible when costs are properly split.

Scenario planning: building Base, Upside, and Downside cases#

Three scenario columns driven by the same input assumptions are the minimum for any investor-facing EBITDA forecast. One set of numbers is not a forecast. It is a single guess.

The Base case uses your most probable assumptions: the growth rate you can defend with pipeline data, the headcount plan you have already budgeted, the cost rates you have contracted. The Upside case lifts one or two key drivers, typically conversion rate or average order value, not all of them simultaneously. The Downside case cuts revenue growth to a rate closer to the 5% public equity average and holds costs flat, because costs rarely fall as fast as revenue does.

Scenario planning also forces you to name your assumptions explicitly. An investor will ask what drives the difference between Base and Downside. If you cannot answer that in one sentence per driver, the model is not finished.

How to handle recurring adjusted EBITDA add-backs without overstating earnings#

Adjusted EBITDA adds back items management considers non-recurring: restructuring costs, one-off legal fees, share-based compensation. The problem is that many of these items recur every year.

S&P Global Ratings found that EBITDA add-backs for deals originated in 2022 represented over 29% of management-projected EBITDA in its sample of large M&A transactions. That figure reflects large leveraged buyouts, not early-stage businesses, but the pattern is the same at any scale: founders add back costs that appear every year and present a number that no future period will actually deliver.

If the cost appeared in the last three years and you have no specific plan to eliminate it, it is not a one-off. Add it back in your internal model if you want to understand underlying performance, but show the unadjusted line alongside any adjusted figure you present to investors. Transparency here builds more credibility than a cleaner number does.

bluprnts is a financial modelling platform that derives the full P&L, balance sheet, cashflow, and investor-ready reports from operational inputs: products and pricing, headcount, sales, costs, and financing lines. The bluprnts learn library covers each model type with worked examples.

FAQs#

Does EBITDA equal profit?#

EBITDA is not the same as profit. Net profit deducts interest on debt, corporation tax, depreciation, and amortisation. EBITDA adds those last two back and ignores the first two entirely. A business can show strong EBITDA and still be loss-making at the net profit line if it carries significant debt or a heavy depreciation charge.

What is an income statement projection?#

An income statement projection, sometimes called a P&L forecast, maps expected revenue and costs to future periods to show projected gross profit, operating income, and net profit. EBITDA sits between operating income and net profit in that structure. A forward-looking P&L forecast is the document that contains it.

Is a business worth three times profit?#

Valuation multiples vary significantly by sector, growth rate, and deal type. A three-times earnings multiple appears in some mature, lower-growth industries, but technology and SaaS businesses typically trade at higher multiples of EBITDA or revenue. No single multiple applies universally.

What is a 5x EBITDA valuation?#

A 5x EBITDA valuation means a buyer or investor is paying five times the business's annual EBITDA. Multiply your forecast EBITDA by the agreed multiple to get the implied valuation. The multiple itself is negotiated based on growth rate, sector, customer concentration, and the quality of the underlying forecast.

Conclusion#

An EBITDA forecast built from driver-based inputs, with costs split between fixed and variable, and tested across three scenarios, gives investors something they can interrogate rather than just accept. The formula is not the hard part. The hard part is grounding every assumption in a real operational number.

Start with the six-step template above. Fill in the revenue drivers first, then the cost structure, then run the three scenarios before you share anything externally. If the Downside case still shows a path to positive EBITDA, you have a model worth presenting.